极地低压对费拉姆海峡大西洋入流水天气尺度变化的影响     

孙瑞立  高郭平 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(3):42-50

The Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait(78°50′N) has synoptic scale variability based on an array of moorings over the period of 1998–2010. The synoptic scale variability of Atlantic inflow, whose significant cycle is 3–16 d, occurs mainly in winter and spring(from January to April) and is related with polar lows in the Barents Sea. On the synoptic scale, the enhancement(weakening) of Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait is accompanied by less(more)polar lows in the Barents Sea. Wind stress curl induced by polar lows in the Barents Sea causes Ekman-transport,leads to decrease of sea surface height in the Barents Sea, due to geostrophic adjustment, further induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly around the Barents Sea, and causes the weakening of the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait. Our results highlight the importance of polar lows in forcing the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait and can help us to further understand the effect of Atlantic warm water on the change of the Arctic Ocean.  相似文献   

Seismic reliability assessment and the nonergodicity in the modelling parameter uncertainties     

Fatemeh Jalayer  Hossein Ebrahimian 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(5):434-457

Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side.  相似文献   

近30年长江口海域生态系统健康状况及变化趋势研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈耀辉  刘守海  何彦龙  秦玉涛  季晓  张昊飞  徐韧 《海洋学报》2020,42(4):55-65

为评估长江口海域生态系统健康状况，本文以鱼类浮游生物为指示生物，选择1986年、1999年、2007年和2016年4个年份的数据，选取鱼类浮游生物总种类数、底栖鱼种类数、水层鱼种类数、低耐污鱼种类数、高耐污鱼种类数百分比、杂食性鱼种类数百分比、虫食性鱼种类数百分比、肉食性鱼种类数百分比、鱼类取样个体数、天然杂交种种类数百分比等10个评价指标，采用1、3、5赋值法计算4个不同年份的河口生物完整性指数(Estuarine Biotic Integrity Index，EBI)，并以此评价近30年长江口海域生态系统健康状况变化趋势。结果显示，1986年、1999年、2007年和2016年4个不同年份的EBI值分别是52、40、36、34，对应的EBI等级分别为“好”、“一般”、“一般?差”、“差”。通过分析EBI年际变化的结果，发现近30年来长江口海域生态系统健康状况呈现先下降，而后稳定在较低水平的趋势，说明长江口海域生态系统亟需及时进行保护和修复工作。  相似文献   

赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾障碍层厚度的年际变化及其影响机制     

马天  程旭华  齐义泉  陈佳佳 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(7):19-31

Interannual variability(IAV) in the barrier layer thickness(BLT) and forcing mechanisms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean(EEIO) and Bay of Bengal(BoB) are examined using monthly Argo data sets during 2002–2017. The BLT during November–January(NDJ) in the EEIO shows strong IAV, which is associated with the Indian Ocean dipole mode(IOD), with the IOD leading the BLT by two months. During the negative IOD phase, the westerly wind anomalies driving the downwelling Kelvin waves increase the isothermal layer depth(ILD). Moreover, the variability in the mixed layer depth(MLD) is complex. Affected by the Wyrtki jet, the MLD presents negative anomalies west of 85°E and strong positive anomalies between 85°E and 93°E. Therefore, the BLT shows positive anomalies except between 86°E and 92°E in the EEIO. Additionally, the IAV in the BLT during December–February(DJF) in the BoB is also investigated. In the eastern and northeastern BoB, the IAV in the BLT is remotely forced by equatorial zonal wind stress anomalies associated with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In the western BoB, the regional surface wind forcing-related ENSO modulates the BLT variations.  相似文献   

EH36钢在黄海的初期腐蚀速率的空间变异特征的地统计分析     

王昭  孙虎元  孙立娟  田国东 《海洋科学》2020,44(1):67-74

以黄海海域为研究区,通过动电位极化曲线法获取了出海实测的EH36钢材在2017年8月及12月黄海43个站位的初期腐蚀速率的数据,并以地统计学方法对数据进行分析,探索研究区内EH36钢材的腐蚀速率的空间分布及其变异特征,绘制初期腐蚀速率预测图。结果表明:初期腐蚀速率的分布状况在夏季、冬季呈现不同的特征,夏季分布呈现近岸低、远岸高,中心高、周围低的特点,冬季分布呈现中心及东南部分低、周围高的特征。同时,统计分析表明, EH36钢在黄海的平均初期腐蚀速率,夏季为0.11 mm/a,冬季为0.25 mm/a,并且在夏季和冬季里, EH36钢在黄海初期腐蚀速率分布的空间变异特征明显,空间自相关性强,其中8月的块金值/基台值为0.062,12月的块金值/基台值为0.138,变程在100 km左右。  相似文献   

孟加拉湾及其毗邻海域中尺度涡旋活动的冬、夏季差异          下载免费PDF全文

黄挺  周锋  田娣  张家赢 《海洋学研究》2020,38(3):21-30

基于1993—2017年从卫星高度计资料中识别出来的中尺度涡轨迹数据集,对冬、夏季孟加拉湾涡旋的源地和性质进行了研究。研究表明孟加拉湾西部、安达曼海和孟加拉湾通往赤道的出口处的中尺度涡旋活动呈现显著的季节性差异。安达曼海在冬、夏季从北往南中尺度涡旋分别以“反气旋涡-气旋涡-反气旋涡”和“气旋涡-反气旋涡-气旋涡”的格局分布。不同源区涡旋的季节性生长过程有明显差异。孟加拉湾西部的涡旋在夏季生长迅速但消散缓慢,斯里兰卡冷涡生长缓慢但消散迅速。不同源区涡旋半径和振幅大小有不同的特征。孟加拉湾西部,无论冬、夏季,反气旋涡的振幅、半径都比气旋涡大;夏季季风漂流区,气旋涡半径比反气旋涡小但是振幅比反气旋涡大;安达曼海内无论冬、夏季都是最北侧聚集区涡旋的半径和振幅最大。孟加拉湾内生命史为30~40 d的涡旋数量最多,生命史在100 d以上的涡旋主要分布在孟加拉湾西部。  相似文献   

北太平洋副热带模态水盐度的年代际变化     

胡睿坤  边志刚  刘子洲  刘聪  翟方国  顾艳镇 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2020,(2):9-21

副热带模态水(Subtropical Mode Water;STMW)在气候变化中起着重要作用。本文利用全球高分辨率数值模拟结果,研究了北太平洋STMW核心层盐度(Core Layer Salinity;CLS)的年代际变化及其物理机制。结果表明,CLS存在显著的年代际变化,其空间分布则与背景流场分布特征有关。侵蚀区CLS滞后生成区CLS约1~2年,这主要是海流平流输运引起的。生成区内,STMW的季节循环一般可分为生成期(12-4月)、隔离期(5-6月)和侵蚀期(7-11月),生成期混合层盐度(Mixed Layer Salinity;MLS)决定着隔离期和侵蚀期的CLS,而MLS年代际变化则主要由同太平洋年代际涛动存在负相关性的海表面淡水通量的变化引起。  相似文献   

Beerkan multi-runs for characterizing water infiltration and spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties across scales   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Laurent Lassabatere  Simone Di Prima  Rafael Angulo-Jaramillo  Saskia Keesstra  David Salesa 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(2):165-178

A method is presented for characterizing the spatial variability of water infiltration and soil hydraulic properties at the transect and field scales. The method involves monitoring a set of 10 Beerkan runs distributed over a 1-m length of soil, and running BEST (Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters) methods to derive hydraulic parameters. The Beerkan multi-runs (BMR) method provides a significant amount of data at the transect scale, allowing the determination of correlations between water infiltration variables and hydraulic parameters, and the detection of specific runs affected by preferential flow or water repellence. The realization of several BMRs at several transects on the same site allows comparison of the variation between locations (spatial variability at the field scale) and at the transect scale (spatial variability at the metre scale), using analysis of variance. From the results, we determined the spatial variability of water infiltration and hydraulic parameters as well as its characteristic scale (transect versus field).  相似文献   

Dynamics and driving mechanisms of asymmetric human water consumption during alternating wet and dry periods   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Fuqiang Tian  You Lu  Hongchang Hu  Wolfgang Kinzelbach  Murugesu Sivapalan 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(5):507-524

Increases in human water consumption (HWC) and consequent degradation of the ecological environment are common in arid regions. Understanding the mechanisms behind these processes is important for sustainable development. Analyses of changes in HWC between alternating wet and dry periods are carried out in four arid inland basins in Central Asia and China (Syr Darya, Tarim, Heihe and Shulehe river basins). Based on runoff records, the presence of an asymmetric HWC response is proved (p < 0.01), with an increase in HWC during wet periods and a muted decrease during subsequent dry periods. This behaviour is interpreted by invoking theories from behavioural economics at the individual and community levels. A simple model based on these theories is shown to be able to reproduce the observed dynamics and is used to discuss the importance of strengthening institutional factors for water sustainability.  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic input signal in a partly forested catchment: Implications for hydrograph separation     

Carles Cayuela  Jrme Latron  Josie Geris  Pilar Llorens 《水文研究》2019,33(1):36-46

The isotopic composition of precipitation (D and ¹⁸O) has been widely used as an input signal in water tracer studies. Whereas much recent effort has been put into developing methodologies to improve our understanding and modelling of hydrological processes (e.g., transit‐time distributions or young water fractions), less attention has been paid to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation, used as input signal in these studies. Here, we investigated the uncertainty in isotope‐based hydrograph separation due to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation. The study was carried out in a Mediterranean headwater catchment (0.56 km²). Rainfall and throughfall samples were collected at three locations across this relatively small catchment, and stream water samples were collected at the outlet. Results showed that throughout an event, the spatial variability of the input signal had a higher impact on hydrograph separation results than its temporal variability. However, differences in isotope‐based hydrograph separation determined preevent water due to the spatio‐temporal variability were different between events and ranged between 1 and 14%. Based on catchment‐scale isoscapes, the most representative sampling location could also be identified. This study confirms that even in small headwater catchments, spatio‐temporal variability can be significant. Therefore, it is important to characterize this variability and identify the best sampling strategy to reduce the uncertainty in our understanding of catchment hydrological processes.  相似文献